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MP Elections 2023: Opinion poll reflects caste dynamics in Madhya Pradesh


Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections 2023: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led by CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan is likely to be on top for various castes including Brahmin, Kirar-Dhakad, Jatav-Satnami, Kurmi, Yadav, Bania, and Rajput among others in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh where elections are due on November 17. On the contrary, the Congress party is expected to become the first choice of Muslims and the Bheel community in the state, according to the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. 

Earlier, the ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll data predicted that the ruling BJP and Congress are expected to undergo a neck-and-neck political battle as the saffron party is only 0.1% ahead of the grand old party in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh. The survey data showed that Congress can get 113 to 125 seats out of 230 constituencies, while BJP is likely to win 104 to 116 seats.

Madhya Pradesh is one of the five states set to hold elections this year. The state is scheduled to undergo polls in one phase on November 17 and the counting of votes will take place on December 3. Voters will choose legislators from 230 Assembly constituencies.

MP Elections 203: Who is ahead in which community? 

1) Brahmin, Bania, and Rajput: The opinion poll data suggested that about 80% of Brahmin voters are likely to choose BJP, while Congress is expected to secure only 12% of Brahmin votes, followed by 8% to other communities, 

2) Bania: Around 68% of Bania voters are likely to go for the ruling BJP in Madhya Pradesh, as per India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. The Congress party may only secure 14% of Bania votes, while other parties can collectively get the support of 18% of Bania voters. 

3) Rajput: The India-TV CNX poll stated that 72% of Rajputs are likely to choose BJP over any other political party in the election race, while 12% may vote for the Congress party, and 16% of the community voters are expected to opt for other contestants. 

4) Kurmi: Nearly 54% of Kurmi voters are likely to vote for the BJP, followed by 41% for Congress, and 5% for other political parties, the opinion poll data showed. 

5) Yadav: In Madhya Pradesh, around 47% of Yadav voters may vote for BJP and 35% of Yadav community people are likely to go for the grand old party. The poll data revealed that 18% of voters are expected to vote for the other political parties.

6) OBC: According to the opinion polls, 56% of OBC voters are likely to vote for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, and 32% may choose Congress, followed by 12% of OBC votes to other parties. 

7) Kirar-Dhakad: About 84% of Kirar-Dhakad community people are likely to vote for the BJP in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh. On the other hand, Congress may only get 15% of Kirar-Dhakad votes.

8) Bheel: The opinion poll predicted that around 54% of Bheel voters are likely to vote for the Congress party in Madhya Pradesh, and the BJP may only get the support of 35% of Bheel people. Other political parties are likely to secure nearly 11% of Bheel’s votes. 

9) Jatav-Satnami: The poll data stated that Jatav-Satnami voters are closely divided between BJP and Congress as the saffron party may get 45% votes from this community, and the grand old party is likely to secure 42% of Jatav-Satnami votes. Other parties are expected to get 13% of Jatav-Satnami voters. 

10) Other Dalits: As per the opinion poll data, the BJP is expected to get the support of around 44% of other Dalit’s votes, and the Congress may secure only 40% of other Dalit voters. 

11) Muslim: The India TV-CNX Opinion Poll predicted that 87% of Muslim voters will back the Congress party in Madhya Pradesh, and only 2% will support the ruling BJP, while 11% will go for other parties. 

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Updated: 31 Oct 2023, 02:30 PM IST

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